We're Winning Pennsylvania, Ohio and FLORIDA?

Is it too good to be true? Following on from yesterday's good news from PPP, Quinipiac now has Obama ahead of McCain in all three of the most critical swing states - Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

Can it really be true? A sweep of all three of these states (or any two) plus holding Kerry's states from 2004 would give Barack an Electoral vote landslide - especially when you factor in his likely pickups in the formerly red states of Colorado and New Mexico.

But it's JUNE. We've hardly started yet. A lot can happen between now and November 4. It's hard to know whether a comparison with 2004 is helpful or not - some polls had John Kerry ahead of Bush some had him behind at this point.

But McCain is not Bush, and Obama is no John Kerry. With all due respect to my home state Senator, who I worked hard for in 2004 - Kerry never took fire the way that Barack has this year, and the level of enthusiasm within his supporters is extremely high. According to the polling more two thirds of those supporting Barack say they are very excited about his candidacy. By contrast only 34 percent of McCain's supporters felt the same way.

So all the early indicators are pointing our way.

It's good. Very, very good. And if you're like me you're thinking "What if it IS too good to be true? What if things swing back, what if Barack gets attacked, what if something happens etc. etc...."

But there's an easy answer to that. Don't get complacent. Make sure you are registered to vote. Make sure ALL your American friends are registered to vote. Call your family and remind them to vote. Call your Republican Great Aunt Bertha in Plano Texas who hasn't voted for a Democrat in half a century and tell her this is the year to do it. Write to your 17 year old niece and remind her that if she's 18 before election day she can be part of something really exciting. Get her registered.

Volunteer to register voters for Democrats Abroad here in the UK. Stephanie Stewart (who will be talking to us tomorrow) runs a great voter registration program and she needs all the help she can get.

Use the Fight the Smears website to, well, fight the smears by telling the truth to anyone who sends you false information about Barack.

Good polls - good start! But we're just getting started!