Another Pretty Picture...

Of a totally different type:

O-mentum?

This graph tracks the President's approval rating over the past 6 months. Whenever the black is over the red line, that means more people approve than disapprove of Barack's job performance.

That first little peak in January shows the nation clearly rallying behind him as consoler in chief after the Gabrielle Giffords shooting. The most recent spike began just after the death of Osama Bin Laden.

In both cases, I find it interesting that the President's displayed great sensitiviy and excellence at a key aspect of his job more or less exactly corresponding with the Republicans putting on a freak show of unseriousness. In January, Sarah Palin responded to the Giffords shooting as if she herself were the real victom, and of course Donald Trump walked right into Obama's carefully laid trap just in time for him to spring it on him at the White House Correspondence Dinner mere days before the death of Bin Laden.

Will this improvement in the polls last? I'm going to go out on a limb and make a prediction that it will - that at least the black line will stay over the red for the next couple of months.

It's probably foolish for me to actually put that in writing, though. After all, as the great Yogi Berra used to say, "It's tough to make predictions. Especially about the future."

I Love US Voters. But I Don't Understand Them...

It's the job of political activists and politicians themselves to try and understand the point of view of their constituents to that they can either persuade or represent as needed. But what are you supposed to do with a voting population that, within a few weeks of giving the President's party the biggest Congressional defeat in a hundred years, still tell pollsters that they basically don't trust the guys who they just voted in one little bit, and think the President will stand up a lot better for their values.

Obama's position against the Republicans in Congress is much stronger than that of his predecessors. The following polls were all taken in the December after the president's first major midterm defeat. So for Bill Clinton, the poll results are from December 1994, and for George W. Bush, they're from December 2006. In both cases, the public trusted the congressional opposition more than the president. Not so today

I mean, I agree with the assessment of the people. But I just can't reconcile it with their vote. Hmmmm...

We're Winning Pennsylvania, Ohio and FLORIDA?

Is it too good to be true? Following on from yesterday's good news from PPP, Quinipiac now has Obama ahead of McCain in all three of the most critical swing states - Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

Can it really be true? A sweep of all three of these states (or any two) plus holding Kerry's states from 2004 would give Barack an Electoral vote landslide - especially when you factor in his likely pickups in the formerly red states of Colorado and New Mexico.

But it's JUNE. We've hardly started yet. A lot can happen between now and November 4. It's hard to know whether a comparison with 2004 is helpful or not - some polls had John Kerry ahead of Bush some had him behind at this point.

But McCain is not Bush, and Obama is no John Kerry. With all due respect to my home state Senator, who I worked hard for in 2004 - Kerry never took fire the way that Barack has this year, and the level of enthusiasm within his supporters is extremely high. According to the polling more two thirds of those supporting Barack say they are very excited about his candidacy. By contrast only 34 percent of McCain's supporters felt the same way.

So all the early indicators are pointing our way.

It's good. Very, very good. And if you're like me you're thinking "What if it IS too good to be true? What if things swing back, what if Barack gets attacked, what if something happens etc. etc...."

But there's an easy answer to that. Don't get complacent. Make sure you are registered to vote. Make sure ALL your American friends are registered to vote. Call your family and remind them to vote. Call your Republican Great Aunt Bertha in Plano Texas who hasn't voted for a Democrat in half a century and tell her this is the year to do it. Write to your 17 year old niece and remind her that if she's 18 before election day she can be part of something really exciting. Get her registered.

Volunteer to register voters for Democrats Abroad here in the UK. Stephanie Stewart (who will be talking to us tomorrow) runs a great voter registration program and she needs all the help she can get.

Use the Fight the Smears website to, well, fight the smears by telling the truth to anyone who sends you false information about Barack.

Good polls - good start! But we're just getting started!

Obama 11 Points Up in Ohio (!)

The respected polling firm Public Policy Polling has just released the first major survey of Ohio since the end of the primary season.

The results show an AMAZING 11 (eleven!) point lead for Barack Obama over John McCain. I found it interesting that his support is equally high across both genders - 49% from women and 50% from men with 12% of women undecided compared with 10% of men.

Obviously, things can change quickly in a campaign and Barack has a lot of work to do between now and november, but this is a great start. I'm sure I don't need to remind you that if John Kerry had margins this good in Ohio, George W Bush would be a distant memory by now.

In PPP's last Ohio poll, McCain was ahead of Obama by 49% to 41%, suggesting that following the end of the primary voters are refocussing on their objections to the Republicans (and don't forget that in addition to the disasters of the Bush administration, the Republicans have severly mismanaged Ohio on a local level).

In national polling, the Washington Post released a poll today that also shows a clear Obama lead - 49% to 45% amongst registered voters.

I'm feeling pretty good about things right now.

John McCain's Negatives at Record High

A recent Pew Research Survey has found that John McCain's previous reputation for independence from the Republican party has been lost and negative perceptions of him are now at a record high. Previously, when asked to describe McCain, those polled would volunteer words such as "Maverick". What is now the number one word used to describe McCain by poll participants? Well, actually, it's "Old."

Ouch.

Still, the poll reports that: "Voters who don't like McCain are, by an overwhelming margin, rejecting his political beliefs, not the kind of person he is."

I'd add a hearty, "well, duh" to that. The problem with John McCain isn't that he's a bad guy it's that he has bad policies - policies that line up 99% with those of George W Bush. Policies that the country has tried out over the last few years and found, to say the least, not very effective.

Obama Ahead 6 Points in NBC Poll

NBC released a poll today showing Obama ahead of McCain by 6 points:

Obama leads McCain among registered voters, 47 to 41 percent, which is outside the poll’s margin of error. In the previous NBC/Journal survey, released in late April, Obama was ahead by three points, 46-43 percent.

“The poll clearly shows a post-primary bump for Barack Obama,” says Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart.

Just for the sake of comparison, John Kerry was never ahead of George Bush outside of the margin of error in 2004. So we have to think of this as a very strong start! Still, lots of work between today and election day to make sure we cross that finish line ahead. If you haven't already done so, make sure you register to vote on www.votefromabroad.org.

Obama Takes the Lead

Both the Rasmussen and Gallup polls are showing a significant lead for Barack over John McCain nationally.

Gallup shows an Obama lead of 6 points, with him scoring 48% of the vote and McCain 42%. That's a an increase of three points since the last poll (McCain is down 4).

Also Rasmussen is showing an increase of 4% in Obama's support and decrease of 2% for McCain - putting them at Obama 50, McCain 44.

A main reason for Obama's improved numbers is his improved performance amongst Democrats, as the party begins to recover from an historically long and closely contested primary. It will be interesting to see if this numbers continue to improve, as Democrats come together and pay more attention to John McCain's policies (anti-choice, Iraq forever, Bush economics).

In other news, it seems that George Bush's policies have had the completely logical and to be expected result of causing more Americans to identify as liberal:

Thirty-six percent (36%) say they are politically conservative, including 16% who say they are Very Conservative. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say they are politically moderate and 25% claim to be politically liberal. That last figure includes 8% who are Very Liberal.

Compared to four years ago, the number of conservatives is little changed but the number of liberal is up from 17%.

7% more liberals? I'll take that for a start!

It's not surprising that Americans would be moving to the left - after all, they want to get as far away from George W. Bush as possible.

Are You a Political Geek (Like Me)?

If so, you will want to play around with this groovy interactive graphic from the New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/us/politics/04margins_graphic.html

Using all the exit poll data from every Democratic primary state where it was available, this tool allows you to see how every subgroup voted in all states. Ok, I'm a total geek, but I don't think I'm alone in finding this super cool. Right? Hello....? Ahem.

Obama Ahead By 9 Points In Ohio

In HUGE news for Democrats everywhere, Obama leads John McCain by nearly 10 points in the latest Survey USA poll of Ohio. If we can lock down Ohio as well as Pennsylvania, where Obama was also favored in the latest Survey USA poll, and Virginia, we'll be in very good shape for the general.

The poll also tested various different Vice Presidential picks for both candidates and found that Obama would beat McCain in this state with almost any VP he would select. Only a Chuck Hagel / Mike Huckabee pairing and, bizarrely enough, an Ed Rendell / Mike Huckabee match up couldn't secure Obama the victory. What have these folks got against Ed Rendell?

Anyway, the poll has Obama ahead in every age group except the over 55s and winning a helathy 57% of those who identify as politically "moderate".

Here's what will possibly be the biggest headline of the piece - after all the hand wringing about whether he could win "hard working voters, white voters" in this crucial state, he is ahead among whites by 45 to 41.